{"id":5261,"date":"2019-01-18T10:00:05","date_gmt":"2019-01-18T10:00:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/tw\/?p=5261"},"modified":"2023-11-09T11:38:18","modified_gmt":"2023-11-09T11:38:18","slug":"should-researchers-include-a-confidence-index-of-their-results","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/tw\/should-researchers-include-a-confidence-index-of-their-results\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7d66\u60a8\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e0b\u500b\u300c\u4fe1\u8cf4\u6307\u6a19\u300d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u79d1\u5b78\u7814\u7a76\u767c\u8868\u65bc\u671f\u520a\u4e2d\uff0c\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u9010\u6f38\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u6d41\u7a0b\u3001\u7fd2\u6163\u8207\u5f0a\u75c5\u3002\u518d\u73fe\u6027\u554f\u984c\u662f\u8a31\u591a\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u89aa\u8eab\u7d93\u6b77\u7684\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u591a\u9805\u5927\u578b\u518d\u73fe\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u8a66\u8457\u5206\u6790<a href=\"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/the-reproducibility-project-cancer-biology-to-replicate-only-18-studies-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u5df2\u767c\u8868\u7684\u764c\u75c7\u7814\u7a76<\/a>\u53ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/alarming-reproducibility-crisis-invading-social-sciences-journals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u793e\u6703\u79d1\u5b78\u7814\u7a76<\/a>\uff0c\u7adf\u767c\u73fe\u5404\u6709\u7d0430%\u7684\u8ad6\u6587\u7d50\u679c\u7121\u6cd5\u91cd\u8907\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7adf<a href=\"https:\/\/www.enago.tw\/academy\/alarming-reproducibility-crisis-invading-social-sciences-journals\/?_ga=2.94621850.745387719.1547491670-331773185.1546966554-331773185\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u5305\u542b\u767c\u8868\u65bc\u9ad8\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u671f\u520a\u7684\u8ad6\u6587<\/a>\uff0c\u79d1\u5b78\u754c\u56e0\u6b64\u53d7\u5230\u518d\u73fe\u6027\u5371\u6a5f\u7684\u9707\u64bc\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/what-if-lose-confidence-in-your-research\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u300c\u5931\u53bb\u4fe1\u5fc3\u8a08\u5283\u300d(Loss-of-Confidence Project)\u88ab\u767c\u8d77<\/a>\uff0c\u9f13\u52f5\u5b78\u8005\u5011\u5927\u81bd\u516c\u958b\u5766\u767d\u5c0d\u81ea\u5df1\u5be6\u9a57\u5df2\u5931\u53bb\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u6b32\u5e6b\u52a9\u63d0\u5347\u5be6\u9a57\u518d\u73fe\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<div id=\"om-kwb3nlhchnoqd9vvrntu-holder\"><\/div>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.omappapi.com\/app\/js\/api.min.js\" data-campaign=\"kwb3nlhchnoqd9vvrntu\" data-user=\"41855\" async><\/script><\/p>\n<p>\u800c\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u9805\u6700\u65b0\u63d0\u8b70\u4f86\u81ea\u77e5\u540d\u53f2\u4e39\u4f5b\u6559\u6388Steven N. Goodman\uff0c\u767c\u8868\u5728\u300a\u81ea\u7136\u300b\uff1a\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u5b78\u8005\u61c9\u70ba\u8ad6\u6587\u4e2d\u7684\u6578\u64da<a href=\"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/should-researchers-include-a-confidence-index-of-their-results\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u9644\u4e0a\u300c\u4fe1\u8cf4\u6307\u6a19\u300d(confidence index)<\/a>\uff0c\u4f30\u8a08\u51fa\u7814\u7a76\u767c\u73fe\u70ba\u771f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_74 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">\u5e38\u898b\u554f\u984c<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/tw\/should-researchers-include-a-confidence-index-of-their-results\/#%E7%94%A8%E3%80%8C%E4%BF%A1%E8%B3%B4%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99%E3%80%8D%E5%8F%96%E4%BB%A3P-value\" >\u7528\u300c\u4fe1\u8cf4\u6307\u6a19\u300d\u53d6\u4ee3P-value<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/tw\/should-researchers-include-a-confidence-index-of-their-results\/#P-value%E7%9A%84%E6%95%9D%E7%97%85\" >P-value\u7684\u655d\u75c5\u00a0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%94%A8%E3%80%8C%E4%BF%A1%E8%B3%B4%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99%E3%80%8D%E5%8F%96%E4%BB%A3P-value\"><\/span><strong>\u7528\u300c\u4fe1\u8cf4\u6307\u6a19\u300d\u53d6\u4ee3<\/strong><strong><em>P<\/em><\/strong><strong>-value<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Goodman\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u592a\u591a\u7684\u8ad6\u6587\u7d50\u679c\u90fd\u4ee5<em>P<\/em>&lt;0.05\u4f86\u8aaa\u660e\u5176\u7d50\u679c\u53ef\u4fe1\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u8aa4\u89e3\uff1a<em>P<\/em>-value\u4e26\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u8a31\u591a\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u8a2d\u8a08\u7684\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u800c0.05\u9019\u500b\u5167\u5b9a\u503c\u4e5f\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u4f9d\u64da\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u7d71\u8a08\u5354\u6703\u4e5f\u57282016\u5e74\u7279\u5225\u8072\u660e\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amstat.org\/asa\/files\/pdfs\/P-ValueStatement.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u9192\u5b78\u8853\u754c\u5207\u52ff\u904e\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4<em>P<\/em>-value<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-018-07589-2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Goodman\u63d0\u51fa\u300c\u4fe1\u8cf4\u6307\u6a19\u300d\u7684\u6982\u5ff5<\/a>\uff0c\u61c9\u5f9e\u5404\u65b9\u9762\u5b8c\u6574\u5730\u7d71\u8a08\u51fa\u5c0d\u5be6\u9a57\u7d50\u8ad6\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u5176\u8a08\u7b97\u4e2d\u61c9\u5305\u542b\u904e\u53bb\u7814\u7a76\u7d50\u679c\u3001\u5b78\u8005\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u5224\u65b7\u53ca\u5be6\u9a57\u9650\u5236\u7b49\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4e26\u7d50\u5408\u8c9d\u6c0f\u7d71\u8a08\u6cd5\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7d71\u8a08\u5be6\u9a57\u7d50\u8ad6\u70ba\u771f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"P-value%E7%9A%84%E6%95%9D%E7%97%85\"><\/span><strong><em>P<\/em><\/strong><strong>-value<\/strong><strong>\u7684\u655d\u75c5<\/strong><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u73fe\u5728\u5b78\u8853\u754c\u5c0d\u65bc<em>P<\/em>-value\u7684\u4f9d\u8cf4\u975e\u5e38\u5927\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8ad6\u6587\u8981\u767c\u8868\u90fd\u8981<em>P<\/em>&lt;0.05\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u5b78\u8005\u5011\u6703\u53d7\u58d3\u529b\u53bb\u64cd\u4f5c\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u60f3\u76e1\u8fa6\u6cd5\u8b93<em>P<\/em>&lt;0.05\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u4f5c\u6cd5\u672c\u672b\u5012\u7f6e\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u8b93\u767c\u8868\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u6578\u64da\u5931\u771f\uff0c\u662f\u79d1\u5b78\u754c\u4e00\u5927\u5f0a\u75c5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u518d\u73fe\u6027\u5371\u6a5f\u7576\u524d\uff0c\u300c\u4fe1\u8cf4\u6307\u6a19\u300d\u7684\u61c9\u7528\u80fd\u89e3\u6c7a\u5404\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5f0a\u75c5\uff1a\u80fd\u66f4\u5168\u9762\u3001\u5b8c\u6574\u5730\u5448\u73fe\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u4e26\u9810\u9632\u6295\u6a5f\u53d6\u5de7\u7684<em>P<\/em>-value\u64cd\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u79d1\u5b78\u7814\u7a76\u767c\u8868\u65bc\u671f\u520a\u4e2d\uff0c\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u9010\u6f38\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u6d41\u7a0b\u3001\u7fd2\u6163\u8207\u5f0a\u75c5\u3002\u518d\u73fe\u6027\u554f\u984c\u662f\u8a31\u591a\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u89aa\u8eab\u7d93\u6b77\u7684\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u591a\u9805\u5927\u578b\u518d\u73fe\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u8a66\u8457\u5206\u6790\u5df2\u767c\u8868\u7684\u764c\u75c7\u7814\u7a76\u53ca\u793e\u6703\u79d1\u5b78\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7adf\u767c\u73fe\u5404\u6709\u7d0430%\u7684\u8ad6\u6587\u7d50\u679c\u7121\u6cd5\u91cd\u8907\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7adf\u5305\u542b\u767c\u8868\u65bc\u9ad8\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u671f\u520a\u7684\u8ad6\u6587\uff0c\u79d1\u5b78\u754c\u56e0\u6b64\u53d7\u5230\u518d\u73fe\u6027\u5371\u6a5f\u7684\u9707\u64bc\u3002\u300c\u5931\u53bb\u4fe1\u5fc3\u8a08\u5283\u300d(Loss-of-Confidence Project)\u88ab\u767c\u8d77\uff0c\u9f13\u52f5\u5b78\u8005\u5011\u5927\u81bd\u516c\u958b\u5766\u767d\u5c0d\u81ea\u5df1\u5be6\u9a57\u5df2\u5931\u53bb\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u6b32\u5e6b\u52a9\u63d0\u5347\u5be6\u9a57\u518d\u73fe\u6027\u3002 \u800c\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u9805\u6700\u65b0\u63d0\u8b70\u4f86\u81ea\u77e5\u540d\u53f2\u4e39\u4f5b\u6559\u6388Steven N. Goodman\uff0c\u767c\u8868\u5728\u300a\u81ea\u7136\u300b\uff1a\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u5b78\u8005\u61c9\u70ba\u8ad6\u6587\u4e2d\u7684\u6578\u64da\u9644\u4e0a\u300c\u4fe1\u8cf4\u6307\u6a19\u300d(confidence index)\uff0c\u4f30\u8a08\u51fa\u7814\u7a76\u767c\u73fe\u70ba\u771f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u3002 \u7528\u300c\u4fe1\u8cf4\u6307\u6a19\u300d\u53d6\u4ee3P-value Goodman\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u592a\u591a\u7684\u8ad6\u6587\u7d50\u679c\u90fd\u4ee5P&lt;0.05\u4f86\u8aaa\u660e\u5176\u7d50\u679c\u53ef\u4fe1\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u8aa4\u89e3\uff1aP-value\u4e26\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u8a31\u591a\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u8a2d\u8a08\u7684\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u800c0.05\u9019\u500b\u5167\u5b9a\u503c\u4e5f\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u4f9d\u64da\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u7d71\u8a08\u5354\u6703\u4e5f\u57282016\u5e74\u7279\u5225\u8072\u660e\uff0c\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u9192\u5b78\u8853\u754c\u5207\u52ff\u904e\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4P-value\u3002 \u56e0\u6b64\uff0cGoodman\u63d0\u51fa\u300c\u4fe1\u8cf4\u6307\u6a19\u300d\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u61c9\u5f9e\u5404\u65b9\u9762\u5b8c\u6574\u5730\u7d71\u8a08\u51fa\u5c0d\u5be6\u9a57\u7d50\u8ad6\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u5176\u8a08\u7b97\u4e2d\u61c9\u5305\u542b\u904e\u53bb\u7814\u7a76\u7d50\u679c\u3001\u5b78\u8005\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u5224\u65b7\u53ca\u5be6\u9a57\u9650\u5236\u7b49\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4e26\u7d50\u5408\u8c9d\u6c0f\u7d71\u8a08\u6cd5\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7d71\u8a08\u5be6\u9a57\u7d50\u8ad6\u70ba\u771f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u3002 P-value\u7684\u655d\u75c5\u00a0 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